The democracy context of the Horn of Africa (HoA) is complex and fluid, with a long history of political instability and conflict. In recent years, there have been some positive developments regarding democracy and good governance, but many challenges still need to be addressed. Some of the positive changes include the growing demand for democracy as exhibited in the Sudanese popular demand for a civilian government and election, the public movement and protest that resulted in the transition in Ethiopia and the election vigilance in Kenya and Somalia. Nevertheless, the states are facing challenges to respond to various demands from the people amidst the pressure of structural shifts in demographics, economics, institutional, ideological, historical, cultural, technology and climate change.[i]
In this regard, 2018 onwards, the HoA region is managing parallel forces of historic rapprochement, the opening of political spaces and transitions contrasting with growing threats to democracy. High inflationary economic conditions, conflict and complex humanitarian emergencies continue to threaten regional stability. For instance, violent conflict has broadened its scope and affected formerly stable countries such as Ethiopia. Somalia is attempting to emerge from years of civil war while South Sudan is in a continuous attempt to democratic transition.[ii] The new Framework Agreement in Sudan is halted due to the armed conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). On the other hand, election violence keeps threatening public confidence in the electoral process and democratic institutions in Kenya; though the Supreme Court’s role in upholding the constitutional order and fundamental rights of citizens could be regarded as a good practice. Therefore, the region’s trajectory will likely continue to balance separate perspectives – offering competing narratives of growth, political opening and stability against repression, instability and conflict. As such, further analysis of the ramifications of such dichotomy on inter and intra-state democratic progress and its impact is needed.
Generally speaking, the democratic landscape across the HoA is bleak. It could be argued that there is a trend of democratic backsliding[iii] in the Region, and there are few signs of progress in building more democratic and accountable governments.[iv] The challenges to democracy and good governance continue to be the lack of accountability for human rights violations, corruption, and the increasing down curve in respect for the rule of law.[v] It also includes avoiding accountability to the public by shrinking the civic space where the public exercises oversight.[vi] Additionally, conflict could be a result of a democratic backsliding, while conflict coupled with other contextual factors could weaken democracy. The cumulative effects of these and other challenges that need further in-depth analysis call for consolidated engagement in the political and democratic landscape in the Horn of Africa.
Accordingly, HCD is conducting a contextual study on the Political, Democratic, Human Rights and Good Governance Situation in the Horn of Africa Region. As a think-and-do tank organisation that anchors research, advocacy, movement building and convening actors on democracy and governance in the Horn of Africa, HCD wishes to develop a baseline to set the benchmark for its programmatic undertaking in the Region.
[i] ISS Special Report. (2023).The State of Governance, Peace and Security in the Horn of Africa. Retrieved from https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/special-report-june-2023.pdf
[ii]The Peace and Security Council strongly encourages the transitional government/R-TGoNU to expedite the implementation of all outstanding transitional tasks. See AU Peace And Security Council. (2023). “Updated Briefing on the Situation in the Horn of Africa”. Retrieved from https://www.peaceau.org/uploads/1158.comm-en.pdf
[iii] Democratic Backsliding is a newly emerged terminology that describes democratic states slipping backwards in terms of their democratic performance.[iii] It also includes increased manifestations of authoritarianism, including undermining collective choice in decision-making and implementation. See https://www.idea.int/blog/explainer-democratic-backsliding
[iv] Council on foreign Relations. (2021). Authoritarian Trends in the Horn of Africa Require New Policy Approach. Retrieved from https://www.cfr.org/blog/authoritarian-trends-horn-africa-require-new-policy-approach
[v] Ulf J. D.(2006).The Reconstruction of Good Governance in the Horn of Africa. ISBN: 91-7267-216-1 Department of Social Anthropology, Lund University available at https://www.soc.lu.se/ulf-johansson-dahre/publication/d31628b0-f5bb-4942-961b-7bf78b73dc89
[vi] Ibid.
