The horizontal and vertical interplay of the protracted and complex conflicts to the democratic^[i] culture and processes in the HoA region has not been well explored. In general terms, according to the assertion of ACLED ranking of violent conflict levels across the world 2023, though the democratisation process since the post-Cold War era has contributed to the reduction of traditional civil wars, adversely, there is a likelihood of militia activity and political violence in countries classified in the democratic spectrum.^[ii]  In the five years 2018-2023, conflict levels are worsening for selected countries in the HoA region, namely Kenya, Sudan and Ethiopia.^[iii] This period of sustained or worsening conflict overlaps with the same period where Ethiopia and Sudan, for instance, are navigating the most significant political transitions since the end of the Cold War^[iv], bearing witness to the argument that within countries that are undergoing political transitions towards democracy or are regressing from democracy, conflict may emerge from the new form of political competition.^[v] 

Thus, a nuanced understanding of the complex and deadly conflicts in the HoA in light of the democratisation processes requires a thorough investigation of the interplay between the two variables.

At the methodological level, HCD acknowledges the importance of multi-actor and multi-stakeholder engagement in its programming in the HoA. Interventions should be designed in a manner that considers the complex political, economic, cultural and ethnic realities of the region and the recurrent armed conflict and violence. HCD further appreciates the importance of understanding the regional conflict dynamics with new and existing fault lines, conflict trends and triggering factors for a successful regional intervention. 

Therefore, as a think-and-do tank that anchors research, advocacy, and convening actors on democracy and governance in the HoA, HCD is conducting a conflict sensitivity analysis of the HoA region to inform its institutional and programmatic approach.

[i] HCD regards democracy as a process and an outcome encompassing the overall democratic structures, as articulated in the 2007 African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance, including good governance, human rights, the rule of law, civic participation, accountability and peace and security.

[ii]ACLED Conflict Index. (2023, July). Retrieved from https://acleddata.com/acled-conflict-index-mid-year-update/#1694099369883-c9941717-a8d5

[iii] Ibid.

[iv] Ibid.

[v] USIP.(2020, October 29).Final Report and Recommendations of the Senior Study Group on Peace and Security in the Red Sea Arena.[ISBN: 978-1-60127-833-3].Retrieved from https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/2020-10/senior_study_group_on_peace_and_security_in_the_red_sea_arena-report.pdf